The Billiken's Bluff

Over at our good friend A-Wood’s own House of Thuggin, a great deal of debate has recently circled around the conflict in Iraq and the potential for fostering stability and democratic principles in the region. I know I’ve certainly wasted enough of everyone’s time with N-Dot opinions on the comment page; for a well-articulated Anti-Bushocrat commentary on the Iraq conflict, look no further than A-Wood’s own post on the subject.

Not to summarize (just go read the whole post, lazy-ass), but essentially the gist is that people in Iraq and Afghanistan don’t want elements of democracy. By overthrowing the Taliban or Saddam, we are “forcing our form of government” on people who (presumably?) preferred what they had before. In A-Wood’s view, the whole enterprise is doomed to failure because democratic principles can only be fostered through an internal revolution; unless a given population can effectively organize and fight to overthrow an oppressive regime on their own, they are simply not ready for things like, say, voting in an election. In other words, who are we to force democracy? (And besides, Bush doesn’t care about Iraqis, he just wants oil and likes blowing stuff up, etc. etc. – no really that’s in there).

No one wants to hear a typical long-winded N Dot response to what I find problematic about these ideas. And I’m certainly not going to address those points that slip into Michael Moore land. Do I need to ask if there seems to be something illogical about his suggestion that thousands of Iraqis, even if they do get the chance to cast a ballot, are going to show up enthusiastically to demand through their collective vote ... that they should no longer have the right to vote? (Oh never mind).

I just wanted to post something about this issue of Iraqi elections in January and whether we can pull that one small step off. Nearly everyone who has an opinion on the subject would at least have to agree that such an undertaking, if indeed possible, is one of immeasurable difficulty. Today there are scores of resolute and effective murderers working in Iraq who would seemingly do anything to make sure the effort fails, targeting soldiers, aid workers and children alike. Whether or not you consider the venture there worth the effort, as indeed many do not, at this point you may have to concede that in an effort to hold elections of any effectiveness, the odds seemed stacked against us.

Here at Billiken, I imagine that whatever your stance on the war is, we can all respect and honor the people who have sacrificed or continue to risk their lives fighting insurgents in Iraq with the goal of bringing some semblance of peace to the country, to the point that Iraqis might be able to go to the polls in January and engage in an aspect of democracy. Love Bush, hate Bush, red fish blue fish – I think we can at least agree on this much.

Today the targets are more and more becoming Iraqis themselves, especially those who actively support what Allawi, the US and its allies are trying to accomplish there. If you are an Iraqi that wants to vote, there are a number of people who would love to kill you.

So the question is, can we pull this off? The cynical voice which answers in the negative has certainly spoken. Like I said, it appears to be very much in the air. That’s why I was very interested to see that on the Dublin-based online futures trading site TradeSports.com, on which you can purchase futures contracts in anything from the who will win the Superbowl to when it will first snow in New York City, a contract has recently been offered on the question of whether Iraqi General Assembly elections will commence by January 31, 2005. Well when I saw that, you know I just had to bite.

Go check it out. The contracts are trading right now at a volume of 3,363 with a bid-ask spread of 71.3-74.0. The online market for these political contracts, which you should note has been more effective at predicting recent elections that any polls, seems fairly confident in the event occurring before expiration of the contract – but prices are changing everyday. Personally, I took my rather substantial winnings from the recent presidential election and split them between 2008 Republican primary election of Rudy Guiliani – which I will be trading regularly until then - and the Iraqi elections contracts. And I’m feeling pretty good about both.

So if you’re a pessimist who says we won’t pull off the Iraqi elections, stop by at TradeSports and sell short some Iraqi election futures contracts. Put your bling where your cynicism is – and let us know about it. I want to know whose money I’ll be taking.